The unemployment hysteresis by territory, gender, and age groups in Iran

چکیده مقاله

Abstract

This paper tests the hysteresis of the Iran’s unemployment rate disaggregated by territory (urban and rural), gender (male and female), and age groups (15–24, 25–29, 30–More) covering the period 2001Q2–2020Q1. Using a recent generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) unit root test, our findings mostly support the hysteresis in unemployment and so shocks have a persistence effect on the unemployment subgroup series. When we extended the analysis to allow for two structural breaks with the GARCH unit root tests, this conclusion remains unaltered. Deregulation in the direction of labor market policies, creating employment opportunities for youth and female, diversification of economic activities in rural areas to deny migration from rural to the urban areas are the main reforms that can facilitate the unemployment persistency in Iran.